Extreme Events and Disasters (SREX)
IPCC Special Report
IPCC just published the Summary for Policymakers of the new special report on "Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)". The report was three years in preparation and it synthesises thousands of recent, peer-reviewed scientific studies. It is officially released on November 18th 2011 in Kampala, Uganda. The full SREX report was published in February 2012.
The new report's main conclusions about future trends include:
- It is "virtually certain" (99-100% sure) that the frequency and magnitude of record-hot days will increase over the 21st century on a global scale.
- It is "very likely" (90-100% certainty) that the length, frequency and/or intensity of warm spells, including heat waves, will continue to increase over most land areas.
- Peak temperatures are "likely" (66-100% certainty) to increase, compared to the late 20th century, up to 3.0 degrees Celsius by 2050, and 5.0 C by 2100.
- Heavy rain and snowfall is likely to increase, especially in the tropics and at high latitudes.
- At the same time, droughts will likely intensify in the Mediterranean region, central Europe, North America, northeastern Brazil and southern Africa.
- Rising and warming seas are also very likely to boost the destructive power of cyclones, while melting glaciers and permafrost, along with heavier precipitation, will trigger more landslides.
Quelle: Source: IPCC [1]